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　　标题/出处

　　Western economies recovering faster than expected from Covid， says IMF
　　国际货币基金组织表示，受疫情影响的西方经济体复苏速度快于预期
　　The Guardian《卫报》6 April， 2021

　　文章导读

　　2020年，全球范围内暴发的新冠肺炎疫情给各国经济带来了沉重打击。尽管新型冠状病毒的传染性很强，但是随着疫苗研发速度的加快，各国政府大力支持复工复产，国际货币基金组织预测西方发达经济体的复苏速度将远超预期。不过，值得注意的是，由于各国疫苗计划的进展、各国政府对此的支持力度以及国与国之间的经济复苏程度不同，导致发达国家与发展中国家的发展不平衡加剧，甚至会有更多人面临极度贫困。

　　正文

　　Stronger recoveries from the COVID-19 pandemic in the US， the UK and other rich western countries will result in faster than expected growth for the global economy this year，the International Monetary Fund(IMF) has predicted.
　　The Washington-based IMF's half-yearly World Economic Outlook(WE O) said successful vaccine programmes， businesses adapting to the challenges of lockdown and Joe Biden's $1.9 tn(? 1.4tn) stimulus package had been key factors in the upgrade.
　　After contracting by 3.3% in 2020， the IMF said the world economy would now grow by 6% in 2021 and a further 4.4% in 2022.The last WEO in October had predicted expansion of 5.2% in 2021 and 4.2% in 2022.The October forecast for 2021 was later upgraded to 5.5% growth in January this year.
　　The IMF said govemments had spent $16 tn in their attempts to mitigate the economic damage caused by the virus and that without the unprecedented policy response the global economy would have contracted by 10% last year.
　　
　　The WEO warned that the recovery would be uneven， with faster progress in rich countries further advanced with their vaccine programmes and with the financial firepower to pay for stimulus packages.Inequality would increase both between and within countries， the WEO said.
　　Of the advanced countries， the US has recorded the biggest improvement in its prospects，with the IMF raising its growth forecasts by 1.3 points to 6.4%in 2021 and 1.0 points to 3.5% in2022.
　　The UK is expected to grow by 5.3% in 2021 and by 5.1% in 2022-an upward revision of 0.8 and 0.1 percentage points respectively since January.
　　Gita Gopinath， the IMF's economic counsellor， said in a blog：“It is one year into the COVID-19 pandemic and the global community still confronts extreme social and economic strain as the human toll rises and millions remain unemployed.”
　　“Yet， even with high uncertainty about the path of the pandemic， a way out of this health and economic crisis is increasingly visible.Thanks to the ingenuity of the scientific community， hundreds of millions of people are being vaccinated and this is expected to power recoveries in many countries later this year.”
　　Gopinath said swift action had prevented a repeat of the financial meltdown of 2008 and as a result medium-term losses-output that will never be recovered—would be smaller at about 3% of global GDP.Unlike after the 2008 crisis， it would be emerging markets and low-income countries that could be expected to suffer greater scarring given their limited ability to stimulate their economies.
　　Despite becoming more optimistic about growth prospects， Gopinath said the future presented“daunting”challenges.
　　“The pandemic is yet to be defeated and virus cases are accelerating in many countries. Recoveries are also diverging dangerously across and within countries， as economies with slower vaccine rollout， more limited policy support， and more reliant on tourism do less well.”
　　The WEO said the expected recovery followed a contraction that had been particularly hard on the young， women， workers with relatively low educational attainment and the informally employed.
　　“Income inequality is likely to increase significantly because of the pandemic， ”it said.“Close to 95 million more people are estimated to have fallen below the threshold of extreme poverty in 2020 compared with pre-pandemic projections.”

　　全文翻译

　　国际货币基金组织(IMF) 预测， 美国、英国及其他西方富裕国家在新冠肺炎疫情影响下强势复苏，从而使得今年的全球经济增长将快于预期。
　　总部位于华盛顿的IMF在上半年的《世界经济展望》中表示， 经济回升的关键因素包括：疫苗计划的大获全胜、企业对封城挑战的适应以及乔·拜登斥资1.9万亿美元(约合1.4万亿英镑)的刺激计划。
　　IMF表示， 继2020年世界经济收缩3.3%之后， 2021年世界经济将增长6%，2022年将放缓至4.4%。去年10月发布的《世界经济展望》曾预测，2021年世界经济有望增长5.2%，2022年增长4.2%，其中，2021年的增长率于今年1月上调至5.5%。
　　IMF表示， 各国政府已投入16万亿美元以试图减轻新冠肺炎疫情造成的经济损失，而且如果没有史无前例的政策支持，去年的全球经济可能会收缩10%。
　　《世界经济展望》提醒，经济复苏可能存在不平衡的情况——富裕国家在疫苗计划方面取得的进展更快，为刺激方案提供的资金也比较充足。《世界经济展望》指出，国际与国内的不平等都将加剧。
　　在发达国家中， 美国经济前景改善幅度最大。IMF将美国2021年的经济增长预期上调1.3个百分点，至6.4%，将2022年的预期上调1.0个百分点，至3.5%。
　　2021年和2022年的英国经济预计将分别增长5.3%和5.1%——自1月以来，英国经济增长率分别上调了0.8和0.1个百分点。
　　IMF的经济顾问吉塔·戈皮纳特在博客中写道：“新冠肺炎疫情暴发的一年， 死亡人数飙升，数百万人失业，全球社会仍面临着极端的社会和经济压力。"
　　“然而，尽管疫情的发展存在许多未知数，但战胜这场健康及经济危机的道路日益清晰。得益于科学家们的智慧，数亿人接种了疫苗，这有望推动各国今年下半年的经济复苏。"
　　戈皮纳特认为，政府的迅速出击避免了2008年金融危机的重演，其结果是中期损失(永远无法恢复的经济产出) 将降低， 约占全球GDP的3%。与2008年金融危机不同的是，由于新兴市场和低收入国家刺激经济增长的能力有限，它们可能会遭受更大的创伤。
　　尽管经济增长的前景越来越乐观，但戈皮纳特表示，未来“道阻且长"。
　　“疫情尚未得到控制，病毒正在许多国家加速扩散。由于疫苗推出速度较慢、政策支持较为有限以及对旅游业的依赖过多，进而经济表现欠佳，国际与国内的经济复苏也出现了严重分化。"
　　《世界经济展望》表示，经济复苏前会经历经济紧缩，而经济紧缩对年轻人、女性、受教育程度相对较低的劳动者以及非正式就业人群的影响尤为严重。
　　该报告还表示：“受疫情影响，收入不平等可能会进一步加剧。相比疫情前的预测，2020年预计将新增近9500万的极度贫困人口。"

　　特殊词汇
　　pandemic n.(全国或全球性)流行病
　　counsellor n.顾问
　　ingenuity n.聪明才智；独创力
　　vaccine n.疫苗
　　lockdown n.活动(或行动)限制
　　meltdown n.(公司、机构、系统等)突然崩溃
　　stimulus n.促进因素；激励因素
　　daunting adj.使人畏缩的
　　diverge v分歧；偏离
　　mitigate v.缓和；减轻
　　rollout n.(新产品的) 推出
　　uneven adj.不均衡的
　　contraction n.收缩；缩小
　　firepower n.火力
　　attainment n.成就；造诣