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标题/出处
Manufacturing sector surges as confidence in global recovery grows
全球经济复苏信心倍增,制造业也随之“回春”
The Guardian《卫报》1 April, 2021
文章导读
自2020年新冠肺炎疫情全面暴发以来,各国都无法独善其身。停工停产,封城封市,经济瞬间停摆,企业破产,员工裁员,失业率也一路飙升。终于,随着疫苗的推出,病毒传播在一定程度上得到有效控制,政府对大小企业复工复产全面扶持,全球经济持续走高,各地制造业工厂订单数量出现了史无前例的上涨。各项经济指数的持续走高,使得制造商们对2021年制造业走势持乐观态度。
正文
Factories across the world reported surging orders in March as the rollout of COVID-19 vaccines accelerated and the $2 tn of public investment announced by the Biden administration lifted confidence in a sustained global recovery.
The likelihood of interest rates remaining at historic lows, and the prospect of consumers unlocking some of the savings from last year in a rapid spending sprec also underpinned the strength of the recovery from the shock of the pandemic and sent shares on US and German stock markets to record highs.
The S&P 500 index rallied above the 4,000 level for the first time—led by tech stocks一as investors embraced the US growth outlook, while the Stoxx 600 index of European companies closed 0.67% higher at over 432 points as it continues to close in on its pre-pandemic high set in February 2020.
Germany's DAX closed at a new record, while in London the FTSE 100 ended 23 points higher at 6,737.
According to a roundup of business surveys from the manufacturing sector, factory output growth hit a l0-year high as new orders and employment all expanded at a more rapid pace,
JP Morgan's global manufacturing index, which shows activity expanding when readings are above 50, jumped to 55 in March to record its best growth spurt since February 2011.
US factories posted their strongest growth in almost four decades, according to the Institute of Supply Management(ISM) 's Purchasing Managers' Index(PMI) .
The ISM's health check showed the Biden bounce, seen in a strong rebound during February, had pushed factory output to accelerate at a blistering pace in March as the PMI jumped to 64.7%, an increase of 3.9 percentage points from the February reading of 60.8%.
Not since December 1983had the sector expanded at such a strong pace.
Yet it was Eurozone that staged the most dramatic recovery, surprising analysts who had expected the stuttering rollout of Covid vaccines across the continent to hold back growth.
Eurozone factories reported the strongest growth in at least 24 years despite what industry analysts said was unprecedented delays to supplies.
IHS Markit said factories across the euro area reported record increases in output, new orders, exports and purchasing activity last month.
This drove Markit's Eurozone PMI up from February's 57.9 to 62.5, the highest reading since the survey began in June 1997.
Factory sectors in Germany and the Netherlands both recorded their highest ever PMI levels in March, with Austria,Italy and France also seeing rapid growth.
British factories also performed well with the UK's manufacturing sector accelerating sharply despite the constraint of import holdups at ports after the Brexit deal in December that has restricted access to vital components.
IHS Mark it'sPMI for UK manufacturing jumped to a decade-high of 58.9 in March, the fastest monthly growth since February 2011.
Industry bosses told Markit that they had seen stronger order growth from domestic customers and overseas alongside a jump in output.
Business optimism hit a seven-year high, as did employment growth, said IHS Markit.
“Almost two-thirds of manufacturers expect output to rise over the coming year.Only 6% expect a contraction.Jobs growth was also at a seven-year high, supported by the sharpest rise in backlogs of work for II years, ”it added.
Duncan Brock, group director at the Chartered Institute of Procurement & Supply,which helped compile the UK PMI, said rising levels of confidence had“opened the floodgates to new business”in March with“green shoots of recovery popping up across the UK as the global marketplace improved”.
He described manufacturers as“enthusiastic”about the rest of the year, though he warned that“the reality of continued supply chain disruption as a result of Covid, Brexit and now the Suez delays could rein back some of the gains in April”.
全文翻译
随着新冠肺炎疫苗的加速推出,以及拜登政府宣布的2万亿美元公共投资计划使人们对全球经济持续复苏的信心不断提升,世界各地工厂的3月份订单数飙升。
由于利率很可能维持在历史最低水平,加之消费者可能会通过快速消费狂潮挥霍去年积累的部分储蓄,也促进了经济从疫情冲击中“回春",并推动美、德两国股市上扬创历史新高。
正是由于投资者看好美国经济增长前景,标准普尔500指数首次升至4000点以上(科技股领涨),欧洲斯托克600指数收盘时上涨0.67%,收于432点以上,继续逼近2020年2月疫情暴发前的纪录高点。
德国DAX指数以历史新高收盘, 而伦敦富时100指数收盘时上涨23点, 至6737点。
关于制造业的商业调查汇总显示,新订单和就业率以史无前例的速度增长,使得工厂产出增长率达到10年来的最高值。
摩根大通全球制造业指数超过50时,就意味着制造业活动会扩张。3月份,该指数跃升至55,创下自2011年2月以来的最大增幅。
根据美国供应管理协会(IS M) 发布的采购经理人指数(PM I) 显示, 美国工厂出现了近40年来最强劲的增长。
ISM的健康调查显示, “拜登繁荣”(2月份经济强劲回升) 促进了3月工业产出加速增长, PM I跃升至64.7%, 较2月份的60.8%上升了3.9个百分点。
这是自1983年12月以来,该行业最快的扩张速度。
然而,欧元区的复苏才最为显著,这超出了分析师的预期。此前有分析师预测,整个欧洲大陆艰难地推出新冠肺炎疫苗,会抑制经济增长。
尽管行业分析师称供应出现了前所未有的延迟,但欧元区工厂报告了至少24年来最强劲的增长。
埃信华迈公司表示,欧元区工厂上月的产出、新订单数量、出口和采购活动都出现了创纪录的增长。
这一增长使得埃信华迈欧元区的PM I从2月份的57.9升至62.5, 这是自1997年6月开始调查以来的最高水平。
德国和荷兰3月份制造业的PMI均创历史新高, 奥地利、意大利和法国也均现快速增长趋势。
英国工厂的表现也很出色,尽管去年12月英国脱欧协议限制了关键零部件的进口,并导致港口进口受阻,但英国制造业仍在迅速发展。
埃信华迈公布的数据显示, 英国制造业3月份的PM I跃升至58.9, 创10年来的新高,也是自2011年2月以来最大的月度增幅。
制造业的老板们纷纷向埃信华迈表示,他们国内外客户的订单量出现了极大的增长,同时工厂产出也实现了跳跃式的增长。
埃信华迈公司表示,就业增长率与行业乐观情绪一样,均达到7年来的最高值。该公司补充道,“近三分之二的制造商预计,未来一年的产量将增长,仅有6%的人认为经济会紧缩。得益于11年来积压工作的大幅增加,就业增长率也处于7年以来的最高水平。”
皇家采购与供应学会促进编制了英国的PM I, 该组织主管邓肯·布罗克表示, 与日俱增的信心为3月“打开了新业务的大门",并且“随着全球市场的改善,全国各地纷纷涌现经济复苏的萌芽"。
他表示,制造商对今年后半年充满“热情",但也警告称,“新冠肺炎疫情、英国脱欧,以及目前苏伊士运河堵塞,导致供应链持续中断,这会抑制4月份的部分增长。”
特殊词汇
rollout n.(新产品的) 推出市场
holdup n.交通阻塞;延搁
likelihood n.可能性;可能
contraction n.收缩;缩小
underpin v.巩固;加强
backlog n.积压的工作
rally v.跌后回升
chartered adj.特许的
roundup n.综述
procurement n.采购
Eurozone n.欧元区
floodgate n.防洪闸门
stutter v.艰难启动
pop up突然出现
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